Friday, January 15, 2010

Some more notes from the elephant and the dragon

- C.K.Prahalad says that businesses will gain by supplying to the lowest bottom of the pyramid, the middle class and lower.

- Your shirt or car would have traveled more countries than you did or will ever do. Thanks to the global supply chain and interwoven economies.

- If US were to continue it's dominance, people may have to re-train for jobs, get into nano, green tech sectors, improve infrastructure ( China's is better according some observations), start spending consciously ( Collectively Americans are in nagative savings mode as opposed to 30% odd savings in India and China. They spend more than they earn. Reason - in my view it is abundance of goods and luxuries all around and seamless ways of payments, plastic cards I mean..Cannot blame americans completely if they hoard their garage with goods from China), invest in education ( I was startled to see that American 15 year olds are 15 th or 8 th in their maths and science skills compared to rest of the world. This is not okay given that thye will have people all over the world competing with them unlike their parent's times), invest in reasearch and hence foster creativity and innovation.

- Why is all not reversible ? 'Buy America' is unlikely - Poeple have chosen Toyotas to Ford in past, they may not buy expensive goods from America and choose against low priced walmart made in china goods, they do not care who does the back office work like tax filing or mortgages or insurances - as long as it's done.
Protectionism - Does not work either, Europe suffered as a result with stagnant growth rates due to protectionism. Protecting jobs here would mean missing out on 'low wage' options and hence when the same person who lost job becomes a consumer, will have to pay heavy prices for all his expenses, which leaves less cash in his hands. Americans are net gainers on long run. $1 tn is the gain in 2006 and more in years that followed.

- Meredith even predicts from her observations that China and India will have a share of the Superpower pie in coming years. Indians will throw the government if the growth is not sustained and similarly there might be a public roar if they go without jobs. Hence their governments will make sure that they have a double digit growth.

- Ms.Meredith also talks about challenges both countries face in coming years..Like I already said it's a must read for many of us.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Elephant and Dragon - East meets West

For me holidays mean resting, relaxing, reading and learning. I recently borrowed an audio book( audio books work best with me these days, given my 10 month old who would tear books to pieces. At our home the digital version of anything is more invincible than paper.) by Robyn Meredith called 'The elephant and the dragon. This was long overdue given that the book came out in 2006. It has been by far a very popular book in "China India Economy" domain.

I have just read 3 chapters amounting to 2 CDs in a set of 8 and loved it completely.
Ms.Meredith is a foreign correspondent for Forbes in China and India. She has managed to paint a realistic ( in my view) picture of what's happening to China and India and what it means to the world. This book is an absolute read for all Asians, Indians and Americans as well.

Since she is a news correspondent, through an audio book, she has taken us to the roads, airports and cities in India and I could also completely visualize her descriptions about Beijing, Shanghai and many other Chinese towns. You can relate the audio book to NPR broadcasts if you ever heard the public broadcasting station at 87.7 FM.

The verbiage excellently captures the actual feelings of post-globalization citizens and benefactors. Interestingly you do not get bogged down by statistics and appreciate what's happening in the East comprehensively and clearly. As a 20 or 30 something you may not have witnessed the reforms that were executed in both the countries ( 1978 - China 1991 - India) and how it changed the way things were done forever.

As a Easterner living in the West, this book led me to imagine the amount of opportunities these countries have in future and to sustain a 8% plus GDP growth given the enormous investments, labor and other resources going into the system.

A part of book tells why it has been easier in China to implement the infrastructure and not in India. Politician Kamalnath has attributed this to the Authoritarian rule in China where things happen at snap of the finger, as opposed to India where the government is decided by the people (Democracy) and thrown out of control if reforms are seen as some threat. Additionally corruption and red tapism slows down the process, making India an Elephant and not a tiger. Atleast it's progressing steadily like a druken man as the book quotes. China is ahead of the two and the Infrastructure is extremely modernand fast growing with newer technologies. A trip to China from India is like a trip to Singapore - a treat to eyes as I can conceive from Meredith's viewpoint.


Also this book is in sync with "my dreams for my country". Better roads, better facilities, better planning, less waiting and an Internet based living. Sitting in 2010 one can imagine more realistically about how India is going to change. A change that is inevitable, given that people are starting to believe in open competition, hence making voting decisions and older generations that are bein g replaced by better salaried young people who are receptive to new ways of living, giving rise to a less conservative and more modern culture.


A farmer's son is no more a farmer, he is sitting in air conditioned rooms with coffee machines and other amenities beside him at work. This boy wants to build a bigger life for his parents, wants to buy a microwave, AC or Flat screen TV, things unimaginable in his father's days.
Or take a girl, who if she was out of college ( provided she even made it to college) looking for jobs before 1990 would have landed on a clerical post, irrespective of her skills, but now is capable of supporting a whole family because she is a part of 2010 India. This has happened within my family.


Elephants and dragons were created when the east opened it's doors to the prosperous westerners. Suddenly East is a fertile land for young, energetic entrepreneurs.

Undoubtedly there is more to happen, newer challenges with free market, but it's all exciting and promising ! !

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

A post accident blog - Women and Driving

When you have been on roads too frequently and too long, you trust your instincts more than you should. A recent accident is a testimony to the fact. With my then 8 month old baby I tried making it to the signal followed by a sharp turn at the shoulder of a highway hitting the curb.
For a second I lost it all. Dhrithi started crying out of the impact and I was panicking thinking that it's all out of control. It was 2 30 Pm and B had to return from work to assess the damages and take the car to mechanic. The rim was broken and alignment was gone. I stood in the middle of shoulder with Dhrithi crying loud. Since this was my first accident, I didn't know who to call or what it meant to us.

I went BECAR. Like many others I am now a victim of luxury. The car also means much more to me when I have the baby along. For next few weeks, I had to commute by bus with Dhrithi in a baby carrier, with a stroller that I carried into the bus and an umbrella since it rained then. I take pride in being someone who can do adapt to circumstances extraordinarily and fortunately I even did, but an accident had it's impacts.

The cop didn't give me any ticket, my brain did. My self esteem as a decent driver plummeted, My carelessness costed us several thousand dollars., which the insurance had to pay. I am less confortable taking out the car with confidence. Today when I had to drive back from the mechanic, I was scared all through the way for 15 miles.

The bill contained repairs for parts I hardly knew they existed. I have cared less to know about mechanism inside a car just like any other woman. That's a part of being a woman. If you are reading this post and deny this because you drive well and also are familiar with the parts, just pat yourself on the back because you are a rare find according to me.

Women and Driving - Still a paradox.

Good news is that this could have been worse, also I learned my lesson by paying a heavy price.